世界主要国家玉米贸易增长的影响分析

文章通过对1991～2010年世界主要国家玉米贸易数据进行比较,利用CMS(恒定市场份额)模型对影响世界玉米贸易的主要国家的相关因素进行分析,结果显示:世界主要玉米市场的贸易伙伴数在逐渐增加,主要贸易伙伴较为稳定,玉米贸易结构较为稳定;世界玉米增长的主要因素在于对于世界玉米进口需求的持续增长,市场效应并没有对世界主要国家的玉米贸易产生一致性影响,竞争力效应对于世界主要玉米贸易国家而言,正在逐步由负到正转变;2006年以后,需求效应、结构效应、竞争力效应对于世界主要玉米国家贸易的影响基本为正。对世界主要玉米国家贸易的分析,将为中国玉米发展提供一定的启示。

On the Effect of the Corn Trade Growth of the World Major Countries

This paper uses the corn trade data of the world major countries from 1991 to 2010 and CMS model to analyze the factors which affect these countries in the world corn trade.The results show that the corn trade partners of the world major markets will gradually increase,but the major trading partners and trade structure will remain stable.The key factor of the world corn trade growth is the continuous growth of import demand,and market structure effects do not consistently affect the world corn trade while competitive effects are gradually changing from negative to positive.After 2006,demand effects,market structural effects and competitive effects should positively impact the corn trade of the major countries.Based on the analysis,the paper provides some policy implications for the corn development of China.