碳达峰目标下国家生态文明试验区碳强度预测及减排潜力研究

基于ARIMA-BP神经网络模型并在碳达峰目标下预测国家生态文明试验区的碳强度；同时，运用非径向方向距离函数、共同前沿理论及共同前沿非径向曼奎斯特二氧化碳排放效率指数(MNMCPI)对减排潜力进行深入探讨。研究发现：(1)由ARIMA-BP神经网络模型所得碳强度预测序列均方误差(MSE)为0.005，平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为1.95%，显示了较高的精度；国家生态文明试验区碳强度2028年相较于2005年下降67.5%，提前实现国家2030年碳强度比2005年下降65%以上的目标，其中：贵州碳强度下降幅度最大，2030年相较2005年下降77.5%，福建、江西、海南下降幅度均在65%以上。(2)国家生态文明试验区减排潜力呈波动下滑趋势，2016—2030年均减排空间达26.59%，约21649.33万吨CO₂。到2030减排潜力达21.9%，为2016—2030年最低值，由于减排潜力与碳排放效率负相关，碳排放效率越高则减排潜力越小，这意味着国家生态文明试验区碳排放效率得到优化。(3)通过探究CO₂排放效率变化，间接分析区域内减排潜力变化...

Carbon Intensity Prediction and Emission Reduction Potential in National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone under the Goal of Carbon Peak

ARIMA-BP neural network model is used to predict the carbon intensity of National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone under the target of carbon peak, The non-radial directional distance function, mate-frontier theory and MNMCPI are used to discuss the potential of emission reduction. Research findings: (1) The MSE of the carbon intensity prediction series from the ARIMA-BP neural network model is 0.005 and the MAPE is 1.95%, showing a high accuracy. Compared with the carbon emission intensity in 2005, the carbon emission intensity of the region in 2028 decreased by 67.5%, Achieve ahead of the goal of reducing carbon intensity by more than 65% in 2030 compared with 2005, Among them, Guizhou has the largest decrease, with an 77.5% decrease, while Fujian, Jiangxi and Hainan have all seen decreases of 65% or more. (2) The trend chart of the emission reduction potential of the zone has generally declined in fluctuation, and the average annual emission reduction space from 2016 to 2030 can reach 26.59%, which is equivalent to the average annual emission reduction of 216.4933 million tons of CO2. By 2030, the emission reduction potential will reach 21.9%, the lowest value between 2016 and 2030. Since the emission reduction potential is equal to 1-carbon emission efficiency, which means that the carbon emissions in the zone have achieved a fundamental transformation. (3) By exploring the change of CO2 emission efficiency, Under the MNMCPI analysis, the average value of MNMCPI in the region is 1.008, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%. The average value of changes in technical efficiency, best practice gap and technology gap ratio is 1.0031, 1.0103 and 1.0007, with an average annual growth rate of 0.31%, 1.03% and 0.07% respectively. The potential optimal emission reduction technologies in the region are constantly approaching the national optimal emission reduction technologies, which promotes the rapid decline of carbon intensity.