Time varying consumption covariance and dynamics of the equity premium: Evidence from the G7 countries |
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Authors: | Asani Sarkar Lingjia Zhang |
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Institution: | aFederal Reserve Bank of New York, United States;bAdvent Capital Management, United States |
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Abstract: | We examine implications of time-varying correlation and covariance between excess equity returns and consumption growth for the equity premium of the G7 countries. We find that the correlation and covariance are higher when there is a negative shock to labor income and a positive shock to returns. The combined effect is that the correlation and covariance are countercyclical and so is the equity premium. We test asset pricing models with time-varying consumption risk and find that the conditional price of risk is generally positive. These results survive several robustness checks. Our results highlight the importance of labor income for understanding dynamics of the equity premium. |
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Keywords: | Equity premium Consumption Time-varying Correlation Covariance G7 countries |
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