Uncertain inflation,exchange rates,and bond yields

The yields on international bonds are affected by exchange rate risk and country risk, in addition to factors such as default and duration that are relevant in the pricing of domestic bonds. This paper constructs a theory of bond yields in a single period framework, with the risk of nominal bonds being endogenous to the model. The behaviour of the monetary authority is modelled explicitly and is shown to be a crucial determinant of the risk of nominal bonds. A distinction is made between the risk of default in the usual sense, and the risk of being paid in currency which is worth less in real terms, with the type of risk that is relevant in a particular case depending on the monetary policy followed. The implications of results for exchange rate risk are also explored in a world where Purchasing Power Parity holds.