中国林业产业高质量发展现代化路径选择

基于2010—2019年中国林业产业的面板数据,以案例为导向,结合界面理论,选取模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA),从林业产业现代化的内部环境、外部环境、功效与目标3个方面对高质量发展背景下的中国林业产业现代化路径选择进行组态分析。共得到4条组态构型,其中多规模以上林业工业企业数量在组态构型中起核心作用,其他要素则起辅助作用;中国林业产业现代化在这10年发展过程中先后经历了林业产业持续增长期、林业产业对外扩张期、林业结构变动期3个阶段,并且林产品贸易稳定性与林业产业技术获取、技术改造金额支出存在等效替代关系。因此,建议加强林业基础设施建设,优先推进林业机械化、以点破面引导非林资本大力介入,推动林业产业结构优化升级、提升对外开放及贸易水平,走国内国外双市场发展之路。

Path Choice of the Modernization of China's Forestry Industry under the Requirements of High Quality Development

(1) Background——In the new era, China's economic development has entered a new normal.In 2020,the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed that high-quality development should be the theme of economic and social development in the whole the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.(2) Methods——Fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA) is introduced into the study of forestry industry modernization.Combined with the interface theory, from the internal environment, external environment, efficacy and objectives of forestry industry modernization, the panel data of China from 2010 to 2019 are selected as the research objects to conduct the configuration analysis on the high-quality development of China' s forestry industry and the path selection of industry modernization.(3) Results——First, the high-quality development and modernization path of China's forestry industry in 2010—2019 have the characteristics of “multiple concurrent” and “different paths with the same destination”.Any single conditional variable is not a necessary condition for the modernization of forestry industry.Each factor cannot independently promote the modernization of China's forestry industry.In different periods, it is necessary to form a configuration path through a variety of factors and generate synergies to promote it.However, the number of large-scale forestry industrial enterprises is an important factor in realizing the modernization of China's forestry industry from 2010 to 2019.Secondly, there are four paths to realize the modernization of Chinese forestry industry.According to the different configuration results of the realization path, the modernization of China's forestry industry from 2010 to 2019 can be divided into the continuous growth period of forestry industry, the external expansion period of forestry industry and the change period of forestry industrial structure.Third, the substitution relationship between the path configuration 3 a and 3 b of China's forestry industry modernization shows that the stability of forest product trade can promote the innovation of forestry science and technology.(4) Conclusions and Discussions——First, it is expected to strengthen forestry infrastructure and prioritize forestry mechanization.The basic ability of forestry industry is the material guarantee for the smooth realization of forestry industry modernization.The number and benefit of forestry industrial enterprises above scale are the main indicators to measure the basic ability of modern forestry industry.Forestry mechanization can directly or indirectly improve the benefit of forestry industrial enterprises above scale by improving forestry labor productivity, and ultimately improve the overall industrial basic ability of forestry industry.Second, in order to guide non-forest capital to vigorously intervene, it is supposed to promote the optimization and upgradation of forestry industrial structure.Enterprization of forestry production is an existed fact that China's industrialization and urbanization process continue to advance.However, the high financing cost and low investment efficiency of forestry enterprises have become important constraints for further enterprization of forestry industry.The modernization of forestry industry needs the intervention of extra-industry capital.Third, it is expected to enhance the level of opening-up and trade, take the road of domestic and foreign dual-market development.It is required to deeply realize the importance of domestic and international markets, plan and allocate resources in the two markets, improve the level of forestry industry opening-up and trade.It is necessary to actively promote foreign cooperation level of China's forestry science and technology, which taken economic and trade exchanges as the medium.