我国农产品供求均衡分析:1982-2006——一个数理分析框架及实证检验

文章针对我国目前主要农产品出现的供需“缺口”特殊现象，选取1982—2006年的样本数据进行实证检验，探求农产品需求、供给的影响因素及其之间的数量关系，并从需求与供给视角分析价格变化方向和影响程度，在此基础上建立农产品价格动态波动的理论模型。实证表明：我国主要农产品，如粮食、猪肉与棉花等的供给存在“二元”特征，导致农产品供给反应具有粘滞性；需求与价格关系因产品种类而异；农产品供给与需求对价格的影响符合经济规律。通过实证与理论研究，最后提出维持农产品供求均衡的政策建议。

An Empirical Test and Econometrics Research of Supply-demand Analysis of Agricultural Products in China: 1982-2006

To the special supply and demand "gap" of major agricultural products at present,an empirical study is carried using the sample of 1982-2006 to analyze the influencing factors of the demand and supply of agricultural product and the relation between them,and to study the direction of price changing and its effect from the perspective of demand and supply so as to build a theoretical model of dynamic price fluctuations.The results indicate that: there is dual characteristics of major agricultural products,i.e.grain,pork and cotton,which lead to viscous reaction of the supply of agricultural product;the demand and the price relation vary by products;the influence of supply and demand toward price is up to the economic law.At last we put forward some proposals for maintaining supply and demand balance of agricultural products.