我国财政赤字与经常项目动态关系的实证分析

本文采用Granger因果检验和脉冲反应函数计量技术,对我国财政赤字与经常项目之间的动态关系进行实证检验,结果表明,存在从财政赤字到经常项目的Granger单向因果关系,财政赤字的增加长期内会改善经常项目收支状况.进一步分析表明,财政赤字与经常项目顺差并存是我国改革开放以来特殊政策环境下形成的,并且随着我国宏观调控逐步由扩张性的积极财政政策转向中性财政政策,政府应密切关注财政政策的变化对经常项目的影响.

Analysis of Dynamic Relationship between the Fiscal Deficits and the Current Account in China

The paper studies the dynamic relation between fiscal deficits and current account in China by employing the Granger-test and impulse responses function. The result indicates that there is a unidirectional causality from the fiscal deficits to the current account, the increasing fiscal deficits improves condition of current account. The further analyzing finds that, the coexisting of fiscal deficits and current account surplus is the result of special policies since the reform and opening. And with gradually changing the expansionary fiscal policy to a neutral one in macroeconomic regulation, government should close concern the impact to the current account.