内蒙古能源消费碳排放变化的分解分析

本文基于扩展的Kaya恒等式,应用对数平均Divisia指数法,建立了碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了1999—2008年内蒙古的经济产出规模、人口规模、产业结构、能源结构及能源强度等因素对碳排放的影响。研究结果显示,经济产出规模对内蒙古该阶段的能源消费碳排放的贡献率最大,达到89.22%,其他影响因素按贡献率绝对值的大小排序依次是产业结构(17.01%)、能源强度(-6.71%)、人口规模(2.78%)、能源结构(-2.30%)。因此,目前内蒙古节能减排的重点在于提高能源效率、调整产业结构、优化能源结构及实施绿色GDP核算。

Decomposition Analysis on Changes of Energy-related CO2 Emission in Inner Mongolia

Based on the extended Kaya identity,this paper uses the Log-mean Divisia index method to construct a complete decomposition model,and identifies the factors that influence the changes of energy-related CO2 emission in Inner Mongolia during the period of 1999-2008,which are energy structure,energy intensity,economic structure,economic activity and population change.The results show that economic activity has the largest positive effects on CO2 emission changes in all the factors,and its contribution rate is up to 89.22%,and other factors sorted by the absolute value of contribution rate from large to small are economic structure（17.01%）,energy intensity（-6.71%）,population change（2.78%）and energy structure（-2.30%）.These results may shed light on possible development trajectories and energy transition in Inner Mongolia with a high potential for growth,which maily includes improving energy efficiency,adjusting industrial structure,optimizing energy structure and implementing green GDP accounting.