经济政策主要变量对控制中国失业率有效性的实证检验

随着中国经济的增长,失业率却一直居高不下,因此国家采取各种手段进行宏观调控。在回顾各种经济学派对失业理论研究的基础上,着眼于经济政策对控制失业率是否有效,在简要分析货币政策和财政政策对失业率影响的基础上,选取1991—2011年中国城镇登记失业率、货币发行量以及财政支出,通过对三者进行单位根检验和Johansen协整检验,得到三者存在唯一的协整关系,并建立误差修正模型,得出货币发行量对失业率影响较大并且较稳定的结论,并通过格兰杰因果检验,得出货币发行量和财政支出与失业率之间都不存在因果关系,最后在实证研究的基础上对当前中国如何控制失业率提出相应的对策。

The Eempirical Test of Validity of the Main Variables of Economic Policies Controlling Unemployment

As China’s economic growth,the unemployment rate has been high. As a result,the state has adopted various means to exercise macro-control. This paper looks at different economic parties on the basis of theoretical studies of unemployment,focusing on the relationship between economic policy and the unemployment rate. On the basis of the analyses of the monetary and fiscal policies on unemployment,it selects China’s urban registered unemployment rate,money supply and fiscal expenditure from 1991 to 2011. Through the unit root test and Johansen cointegration test,the three unique cointegration relationship exists,and the establishment of the vector error correction to arrive at a conclusion that the amount of currency a greater impact on the unemployment rate and more stable. In addition , Granger causality test draws a conclusion that money supply and fiscal expenditure is not causation unemployment ,and on the basis of empirical research put forward some measures about how to control the rate of unemployment in our country.