中国货币政策对美国货币政策独立性的实证分析

在外汇储备快速增加和汇率制度面临选择的背景下,中国货币政策的独立性备受关注。本文运用Ordered Probit模型,对中国货币政策相对美国货币政策的独立性进行了实证分析。结果表明:1998年1月至2011年6月,中国基本保持了货币政策的独立性;从1998年1月至2005年6月和2005年7月至2011年6月汇率浮动幅度有明显差异的两个时段分析我国货币政策的独立性的差异,发现人民币汇率浮动幅度的放宽并未导致中国货币政策独立性的增强,放宽汇率管制并不能增强中国货币政策的独立性。

Empirical Analysis on the Independence of Chinese Monetary Policy Relative to the U.S. Monetary Policy

Since foreign exchange reserves are increasing rapidly and the exchange rate regime is facing with a choice,the independence of monetary policy in China garnered particular attention.In this essay,the Ordered Probit model is introduced to conduct an empirical analysis on the independence of Chinese monetary policy relative to the U.S.monetary policy.The results show that: from January 1998 to June 2011,China has basically maintained the independence of monetary policy.Analyzing the difference of the independence of Chinese monetary policy in the two periods from January 1998 to June 2005 and July 2005 to June 2011,when the floating band of the exchange rate showed a significant difference,it can be concluded that the relaxation of the RMB exchange rate floating range did not result in the enhancement of the independence of Chinese monetary policy,and the relaxation of exchange controls cannot enhance the independence of Chinese monetary policy.