农产品加工业集聚、空间溢出与农业高质量发展

目的]我国粮食生产实现“十六连增”,但农业经济增速放缓。农产品供给与市场需求的结构性矛盾加剧、优质农产品占比不高等问题促使农业生产急需从规模增长型转向结构优化、品质提升的高质量发展型。探究区域农业生产的整体特征和空间相关性以及农产品加工业集聚发展对于农业生产环节的直接效应、空间溢出效应和门槛效应,以期为农产品加工产业的空间合理布局和产业链逆向融合并引导生产环节高质量发展提供理论依据。方法]文章利用2009—2018年长三角26个地级市的空间面板数据,运用莫兰指数考察农业生产空间布局。在理论分析基础上,构建空间权重矩阵,选用空间计量和门槛模型进行空间效应和门槛效应分析。结果]（1）各地区的农业产值具有空间相关性;（2）农产品加工业的集聚发展促进本地区农业经济发展,其带动作用呈现“倒U型”关系;（3）对周边地区农业经济发展具有显著的空间溢出效应,带动周边地区农业生产,不受虹吸效应影响。结论]适度推进农产品加工业集聚发展,同时通过差异化发展战略着重在农业经济欠发达地区引入农产品加工业作为增长极并引导产业创造路径依赖,利用农业的空间相关性与加工业的空间溢出效应带动地区农业经济高质量发展...

AGGLOMERATION, SPATIAL SPILLOVER OF AGRO-PROCESSING INDUSTRY AND HIGH-QUALITY AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

In China, grain production has been increasing for the last 16 years. At the same time, agricultural economic growth is slowing down. The increasing tension between market demand and supply of high-quality agricultural products necessitates agricultural production to shift from the scale-increasing type to the high-quality development type with optimized structure and improved quality. This study aims to provide solid, evidence-based information for rationalizing the spatial distribution of the agro-processing industry in China and provide guidance for a high-quality development of production links through reverse integration of the industrial chain by analyzing the direct effect, spatial spillover effect and threshold effect of agro-processing industry agglomeration on the agricultural production link. Based on spatial panel data for 26 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2009 to 2018, Moran'' I index was used to investigate the spatial distribution of agricultural production, a spatial weight matrix was constructed and a spatial econometric model was applied to estimate the spatial effect and the threshold effect. The results were listed as follows. (1) Agricultural output was spatially correlated. (2) The agglomeration of the agro-processing industry promoted local agricultural production. However, the effect of agglomeration of the agro-processing industry on the agricultural production link showed an "inverted U-shaped" relationship. (3) The agglomeration of agro-processing industry had a significant spatial spillover effect on the agricultural economic development, drove the agricultural production of the surrounding areas, and was not affected by the siphon effect. Accordingly, the agglomeration of the agro-processing industry should be promoted moderately. Specifically, a differentiation strategy should be applied to establish and promote the agro-processing industry in less developed regions, and policies should guide the industry to gain from path dependence.