云南省财政支农对农民收入动态冲击效应分析

运用1978~2005年云南省的相关时间序列数据,采用Granger因果关系检验和SVAR模型的脉冲响应函数方法,分别从财政支农总量和结构两方面分析了云南省财政支农与农民收入的关系。实证分析结果表明:云南省财政支农总量没有形成农民收入增长的关键因素,主要是由于财政支农中的农业科技三项费用和农业基本建设支出正向冲击对农民收入均具有正的长期效应,但其支出比重较低;而财政支农中的支农支出正向冲击对农民收入产生效应不明显,但其支出比重较高。

Empirical Analysis on Dynamic Impulse Response of Public Financial Support to Agriculture and Farmer's Income in Yunnan Province

Using relative time series data from1978 to 2005 in Yunnan,Granger causality test and impulse response function of SVAR Model,the paper analyzes the relationship between public financial support to agriculture and farmer's income in Yunnan province from the aspects of amount and structure.The result of empirical analysis demonstrates that the total amount of financial support to agriculture is not the key factor to increase farmer's income.The main reason is because the three expenses in agricultural science and technology and agricultural infrastructure have positive long-term effect on farmer's income,but its expenditure is relatively low in specific gravity.On the other hand,the effect of supporting agricultural expenditure to farmer's income is not obvious,but its expenditure is relatively high in specific gravity.