“一带一路”国家与中国农产品贸易与碳排放的关系实证分析

目的]为了推进"一带一路"沿线区域内的农产品贸易,共创环境优化和贸易获益的共赢局面,文章基于1995—2014年"一带一路"沿线5个区域48个国家的面板数据,研究农产品贸易和碳排放之间的双边关系。方法]首先,评估农产品贸易对碳排放的影响。其中,创新性地采用农产品贸易开放指数(TPI)测度沿线国家的农产品贸易开放程度;其次,构建纳入碳排放的指标体系,设立随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率项模型,实证检验碳排放对农产品贸易及其效率的影响。结果]一方面,沿线国家的农产品贸易开放度越高,碳排放越高;另一方面,沿线国家的碳排放对其与中国的农产品进出口贸易存在显著的正向效应,且呈现出明显的区域差异。物流综合绩效的提升、是否加入WTO均有助于提升农产品贸易效率。结论]中国应积极利用沿线国家的碳资源,扩大与沿线区域,尤其是南亚、东南亚和中亚(含俄蒙)的农产品进出口贸易,以及对西亚和中东地区的农产品出口贸易。

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND CARBON EMISSIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND REGIONS ALONG "THE BELT AND ROAD" INITIATIVE

In order to promote agricultural trade in regions along "the Belt and Road"Initiative and to create a win-win situation between environmental optimization and trade benefits, based on the panel data of 48 countries in 5 regions along "the Belt and Road" Initiative from 1995 to 2014, this paper studies the mutual relationship between agricultural trade and carbon emissions. First, this paper assessed the impact of agricultural trade on carbon emissions per capita, in the process, TPI was used to measure the openness of agricultural trade. Then, specific indices of carbon emissions were constructed, meanwhile, the stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency term model were set up to make the empirical analysis of the factors affecting the volume and efficiency of agricultural trade. On one hand, the higher degree of agricultural trade openness, the more the carbon emissions. On the other hand,the carbon emissions of the regions had a significant positive effect on the import and export of agricultural products with China.And there existed a distinct difference among countries. Besides,the improvement of comprehensive logistics performance and whether be WTO member were helpful to improve trade efficiency.To make complete use of the carbon resources in the region,it is suggested that China should expand the import of agricultural products with certain countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Central Asia,such as Russia and Mongolia, as well as to expand the agricultural export to countries in West Asia and the Middle East.