科技进步贡献率的测算与预测——以宁波市2003-2023年的时间序列模型为例

推动经济增长的因素有很多,技术进步是其中重要一环。目前,中国的GDP总量已经位居世界第二,但经济增长与由此产生的发展不平衡、不协调、不可持续的矛盾日益加剧。要素驱动的老路难以为继,科技创新将成为未来经济增长的新动能。以宁波市2003年至2023年间的时间序列模型为例,对宁波的科技进步贡献率进行测算和预测,并在此基础上提出对科技进步贡献率的一些看法。

Calculation and Prediction of Contribution Rate of Scientific and Technological Progress

There are many factors driving economic growth, among which technological progress is an important part. At present, China''s gross domestic product has ranked second in the world. However, there is still an imbalance in economic growth. In the future, the old road of factor-driven is not sustainable, and science innovation will become the new driving force of economic growth. Taking the time series model of Ningbo city from 2003 to 2023 as an example, we calculate and forecast the contribution rate of science and technology progress in Ningbo. On this basis, some views on the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress are put forward.