我国信贷资金分布与宏观经济波动关系的实证研究

银行信贷将为经济短期内实现反转提供强有力的支撑,但是,信贷资金的各个部分对宏观经济有不同的效应。对信贷及其组成部分与经济周期的关系进行计量检验,得到的结论是:信贷资金的分布与经济增长率的周期性波动存在明显的内在联系;而且,中长期贷款和建筑贷款的周期性波动提前于经济增长,工业贷款和商业贷款的周期性波动与经济增长率相对一致。因此,宏观调控部门应积极引导信贷资金流向效应明显的领域。

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Distribution of Credit Funds and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in China

As China is a bank-oriented country,credit will provide economy with strong support to reverse in a short period.However,various parts of the credit funds have different macroeconomic effects.Econometric test on the relation between credit and its structure and economic cycle gives the following conclusions:there is obviously inherent contact between the distributions of credit funds;the cyclical fluctuation of medium and long-term loans and construction loans are in advance of economic growth,industrial lo...