中国城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析

文章在建立向量自回归模型的基础上,运用格兰杰因果分析和协整分析来实证城市化与能源消费之间的动态相关性,并利用因素分解模型定量测算出城市化对中国能源消费变动的贡献份额。研究结果表明,中国城市化与能源消费量之间存在单向的格兰杰因果联系,且二者之间存在着协整关系,但这种长期均衡的短期纠正力量并不很强;现阶段城市化对我国能源需求的贡献作用尚比较小,而且还呈现逐年下降的趋势。因此,在当前条件下,建立有助于资源节约型的城市化推进模式是中国降低能耗的根本路径选择和重要途径。

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Development of Urbanization and Growth of Energy Consumption in China

Based on the Vector Auto-Regression model,this paper applies Granger causality model and cointergration analysis to test the dynamic correlations between development of urbanization and growth of energy consumption,and calculates the contribution of urbanization to change of energy consumption with the factor decomposition model.The result shows that there exist not only a one-way granger relationship but also a long-term relationship between urbanization and energy consumption.However,in the long run,the role of correction is not prominent.In current conditions,the contribution of urbanization to the energy consumption is smaller,and its trend is decreasing.Therefore,accelerating pace of resource-saving urbanization is the fundamental approach to reduce energy consumption.