我国长江、黄河流域地区棉花单产影响因素分析——基于河南省、江苏省、山东省的调查

棉花单产的增加是保证我国棉花供给的重要途径。基于我国河南、江苏、山东三省农户调查数据，本文构建了我国棉花单产影响因素模型。模型计算的结果表明，棉花的人工、化肥、农药、地膜、灌溉及其他项投入已经达到或超过最佳投入点，而技术培训与农业基础设施则远远落后于最佳投入点，这是现阶段提高我国棉花单产的潜力所在。最后，本文指出政府应加大对棉花主产区农业技术推广和农村基础设施投资力度，以提高我国棉花单产。

Study on Influencing Factors of Cotton Yield In Yangtze River and Yellow River Areas: Based on the Survey in Henan,Jiangsu and Shandong

The increasing of cotton yield is the most important to steady the cotton supply.This paper brings forward a model on cotton yield to analyze the influencing factors.The results of calculation show that,labor,fertilizer,pesticide,mulch and irrigation inputs have reached or have exceeded the optimal equilibrium point,but the cotton farmer’s technical training and infrastructure investment are far behind the optimal equilibrium point.Finally,it indicates that the increasing of cotton yield mainly relies on the improvement of cotton farmer’s production technology level as well as the agricultural infrastructure investment.