OPEC策略行为理论研究评述

OPEC策略行为理论是石油经济学研究的两大主题之一。本文在梳理20世纪70年代以来大量相关研究文献基础上，对OPEC策略行为理论的发展脉络、经典模型以及对经典模型的实证检验研究进行了较为全面分析。分析发现，虽然描述OPEC行为的模型越来越精细，但由于OPEC及其成员在不同时期策略行为方式和重点不同，每种模型只能解释部分时期的部分行为。OPEC对国际石油价格的影响主要体现在短期，长期看国际石油价格主要反映市场基本面变化。

LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE MODEL OF OPEC’S BEHAVIOR

The theory of OPEC’s behavior is one of the two main themes of petroleum economics. Based on a large number of relevant research literature since the 1970s, this paper reviews the clues of OPECs behavioral theory, the classic models, and compares the methods and conclusions of empirical researches. The author indicates that, although the models described OPECs behavior have been more sophisticated, each model could only explain a part of OPECs behavior in some period, because OPEC and its members use different strategies at different times. OPEC and its members have obvious short term impact on oil price. However, oil price mainly reflects the changes in market fundamentals in the long term.