全球经济失衡的利益考察——基于估值的视角

文章从估值视角分析了全球经济失衡的金融利益分配格局。在分析估值效应研究现状的基础上,根据相关的理论模型与分析方法,选取失衡中心美国与贸易顺差国日本和中国为分析对象,利用估值效应对全球经济失衡的金融利益分配格局进行了实证检验。结果表明,在全球经济失衡期间,美国的净国外资产变动存在相当大的正估值,与之相应的最大贸易顺差国日本和中国的净国外资产变动中存在巨大的负估值,意味着与外部失衡相应的国际资本流动收益为美国提供了稳定的融资来源,相当于实现了从顺差国向美国的财富转移。

Global Imbalance: An Analysis based on the Perspective of Valuation

The paper analyzes financial benefit patterns from the perspective of valuation effect.Based on research status of valuation effect,according relevant theoretical models and analytic methods,selecting imbalance center USA and surplus countries Japan,China as objects of study,it empirically studies financial benefit distribution patterns of global imbalance with valuation effects.The results show that,during global imbalances,changes of net foreign assets in the USA manifest large positive valuation,while vast negative valuation in Japan and China,implying net earnings from international capital flow providing stable financing sources for USA,which is equivalent to a wealth transfer from surplus countries to USA.