Technology development: Determining what to forecast

This article discusses a proven conceptual technique for identifying, classifying, and relating the very large number of complex factors, known and unknown, that enter into venture analysis decisions. Frameworks for reducing complexities to manageable options are proposed. These frameworks highlight areas where additional knowledge— or even invention—is necessary. Planning managers may thus determine their present technological position (where they are in the scheme of the present state of the art), map out possible future developments, reduce the risk of future shock, and determine which alternative should be the subject of in-depth technological forecasts.