Exchange Rates and Turkish Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Trade with the EU Countries: Bilateral Trade Data Analysis

This study examines the role of exchange rate on Turkey's fresh fruits and vegetables bilateral trade balance with 14 trading partners in the European Union. Because dynamic effects of exchange rate changes on trade balances have been hypothesized as the J-curve effect, special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis is observable. To this end, we apply the bounds testing cointegration approach to the trade balance model for the period of 1995:q1–2007:q2. Results support evidence of the J-curve effect in 2 cases in the short run. In the long run, the exchange rate has a positive impact on the trade balance in 7 out of 14 cases.