| 客运量的合成预测与概率模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 任飞正,孔力.客运量的合成预测与概率模型[J].铁道运输与经济,2003,25(2):57-59. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任飞正 孔力 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学,控制科学与工程系,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 为适应交通运输业的发展,将运输需求的合成预测方法引入铁路客运量预测中,结合铁路客运量具有双峰形态分布随机变量的特点,对预测概率模型进行改进,得出“十五”末期铁路客运量的预测值,以及铁路月度客运量频率散点图和拟合概率曲线,为铁路运输的宏观指导、组织协调和生产、建设提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 客运量 预测 概率模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1421(2003)02-0057-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年12月4日 |
The Synthetic Prediction of Passenger Uolume and the model of Probability |
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| REN Fei-Zheng,KONG Li.The Synthetic Prediction of Passenger Uolume and the model of Probability[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2003,25(2):57-59. |
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| Authors: | REN Fei-Zheng KONG Li |
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| Abstract: | To adapt to the development of traffic andtransportation industry, this paper introduces the syntheticprediction method for transport demand into railway passengerprediction. The prediction model of probability is mended inthe light of railway passenger volume's characteristics - arandom variable with double-peak distribution. Then it comesup with the predicting value of passenger volume by the end of"Tenth-Five-Year Plan", the frequency distribution chart ofrailway monthly passenger volume as well as a Bimodalprobability curve so as to provide a solid reference for the macrodirection, organization, coordination, production andconstruction of railway transportation. |
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| Keywords: | railway passenger volume prediction probabilitymodel |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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