浙江省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

改革开放以来,浙江省对外贸易和GDP双双高速增长,是我国外贸快速发展的典型代表。基于浙江省1978-2005年GDP及进出口贸易数据的协整分析表明:浙江省实际GDP和实际出口总额、实际进口总额之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验则得出进口增长是经济增长的单向原因,经济增长是出口增长的单向原因的结论。在此结论基础上,提出了浙江省对外贸易发展的政策建议。

Relations between Foreign Trade and Regional Economic Growth in Zhe-jiang Province

The foreign trade and GDP of Zhe-jiang province develop greatly in recent years, and it is the representative of Chinese foreign trade miracle. This paper makes an empirical analysis by cointegration test and causality test according to the data of Zhe-jiang from 1978 to 2005 and draws the conclusion that a long-term steady balanced relationship exists in the actual GDP, export value and import value. The import growth is the reason of GDP growth, and the GDP growth is the reason of export growth. At last, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the development of foreign trade in Zhe-jiang province.