Land Transport for Export: The Effects of Cost, Time, and Uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), inland export transport costs and time delays are much higher for landlocked countries, vary substantially between different geographic corridors, and exhibit substantial uncertainty. Unit costs and costs of time for land transport of exports are high for many agricultural products relative to metals and other high-value products. We illustrate systemic uncertainty in land and maritime transport for exporting by use of simulation. Relationships among uncertainty, infrastructure quality, and other features of logistics systems are highly non-linear, and can be potentially used to identify priorities for trade facilitation.