被诉反倾销措施贸易效应的实证分析与比较

在整理全球反倾销案件和数据的基础上,首次统计分析了1995～2008年全球前12个主要被诉国家的案件数、涉案金额、市场份额的分布及显示性比较优势指数等,发现中国成为全球反倾销的首要目标国,反倾销针对的就是出口市场份额高、竞争力强的产品。其后建立动态面板数据模型实证分析贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应。结果表明,肯定结案时存在显著的贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应,但难以判断贸易效应是短期的;否定结案下也存在贸易震慑效应,但影响小于贸易破坏效应。最后考察不同结案对产业竞争力的影响发现,肯定结案对申诉方提高产业竞争力有积极作用,但这种作用随时间递延而衰减。

An Empirical and Comparative Study of Trade Effects of Antidumping Action on Involved Countries

Based on global antidumping cases and relevant data,the paper makes a statistical analysis of the number of cases,involved values,market shares under different methods of settlement,and revealed comparative advantage indexes of 12 most involved countries during 1995～2008.The results show that China has become the first-place target country of global antidumping,with the aim of antidumping at the products of high exporting share and international competitiveness.Then a dynamic panel data model is established to estimate the trade destructing effect and trade diversion effect of antidumping under different methods of settlement by using the method of system GMM.It concludes that there are significant trade destruction effects and trade diversion effects in the affirmative cases,but there is no evidence that these effects are short-term.In the negative cases,there are trade deterrent effects in most involved countries but their influence is smaller than trade destruction effect.After analyzing the influence of different settlements on industry competitiveness,it concludes that affirmative settlement has a positive effect on promoting industry competitiveness,which,however,will weaken as time goes.