房价、房价偏离与溢出效应：来自珠江三角洲的经验证据

利用国外较新的PMG估计法，探讨影响珠江三角洲商品房均衡价值的因素及房价偏离，并采用脉冲响应函数分析房价偏离在不同城市间的溢出效应。随着收入和人口的增加，房价加速上涨；经济越发达的城市，房价收入比越大，房价的增长速度更快、波动更为剧烈。人均可支配收入是推动房价上涨最重要的长期因素，通货膨胀次之，贷款最小；但贷款、通货膨胀是主要的短期推动力。虽然珠江三角洲地区房价总体上没有明显的泡沫，但波动很剧烈，一旦发生调整，其幅度将很大。除江门外，其他城市只对深圳房价偏离的冲击做出响应，而深圳对其他城市房价偏离的冲击没有响应；江门房价更多的受到来自中山和珠海的影响，深圳是珠江三角洲房价波动的源头。

House Prices,Deviation and its Spillover:Empirical Evidence from the Pearl River Delta

The paper researches the factors of house prices in the Pearl River Delta,the equilibrium val-ue and its deviation with the PMG method,and using the impulse response function analyzes the spillover effects of the prices deviation among different cities. With the increasing income and population,house prices rise faster,and the more economically developed cities,the higher house prices income ratio,with faster growth rate and more fluctuations of house prices. The per capita disposable income is the most important long-term factor to promote house prices,followed by inflation,and loan is the smallest. However in the short-term,loan and inflation are the main driving forces. Although there is no obvious house prices bubble overall, the house prices fluctuate strongly with a large adjustment. Other cities only respond to the impact of house prices of Shenzhen except Jiangmen,and Shenzhen didn＇t respond to the house prices impact of other cities. Shenzhen is the source in the price fluctuations of the Pearl River Delta.