Extent and Impact of Incubation Time in New Product Diffusion |
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| Authors: | Rajeev Kohli Donald R. Lehmann Jae Pae |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Key Laboratory of Data Analytics and Optimization for Smart Industry (Northeastern University), Ministry of Education, Shenyang 110819, China;2. National Frontiers Science Center for Industrial Intelligence and Systems Optimization, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China;3. Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineering, College of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China |
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| Abstract: | ![]()
This article examines the time between product development and market launch, and its relation to the subsequent diffusion of consumer durables. We find that this "incubation time" is long. Further, it is a useful predictor of the shape of the subsequent sales diffusion curve. Using the Bass model as a base, we find that the longer the incubation time, the lower the coefficient of innovation ( p ) and the longer the time to peak sales. Further, using the incubation time in a Bayesian forecasting model significantly improves forecasts early in the life cycle. © 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. |
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