"送猪崽"与"折现金":我国产业精准扶贫的路径分析与政策模拟研究

产业扶贫旨在将贫困户的生产活动纳入社会产业大循环,因此其一直是全世界扶贫工作的重要方式和主要目标之一.我国产业精准扶贫出现了两条新路径:一是GTP路径,即向贫困户送猪崽、鸡苗和良种等资本,直接将贫困户的生产纳入当地的产业体系;二是GSP路径,即将扶贫资金折合现金并由贫困户自己决定投资项目和选择产业.文章构建了包括贫困户和非贫困户的微观主体行为模型以及基于农村公平和效率的农村福利模型,分别研究了这两条新路径上贫困户福利和农村福利的动态演变过程,然后使用系统动力学模型进行了政策模拟,拟探索出我国产业精准扶贫的最优路径及其政策支持空间.结果显示:在第3~4年的时间内,GSP路径要优于GTP,但是超过4年,GTP路径上的贫困户福利和农村福利就会累进性超过GSP.而且,在GTP路径上的时间越长,扶贫效果就越好.在中长期,提高贫困户的技术水平,增加贫困户的初始资本额是进一步提高GTP路径上贫困户福利和农村福利水平的重要环节.文章的结论对于提高我国精准扶贫的理论自信,进一步完善我国产业精准扶贫政策体系具有一定的启示.

Capital Transfer or Cash Transfer:Path Analysis of Chinese Industry PrecisionPoverty Alleviation and Its Policy Simulation

How to incorporate the production activities of poor households into industry poverty alleviation in social industrial systems has been the key form and one of main objectives concerning global poverty alleviation work.In China, there are mainly two new paths to industry poverty alleviation: one is GTP path (transferring capital such as piglet, chicken and seeds to poor households and directly incorporating the production of poor households into local industry systems);the other is GSP path (the poverty alleviation funds will be converted into cash and the poor households will decide investment projects and select the industries invested on their own).This paper builds a micro subject behavior model including poor and non-poor households and rural welfare model based on rural fairness and efficiency, and studies dynamic evolution processes of the welfare of poor households and rural areas in terms of these new paths respectively.Then it makes the policy simulation by using system dynamics model to explore the optimal path to industry poverty alleviation and its supportive policy space.It shows that within three or four years, GSP path is optimal than GTP path, but after more than four years, the welfare of poor households and rural areas in GTP path would progressively exceed GSP path.Moreover, longer implementation of GTP path leads to better effectiveness of poverty alleviation.During a period of ten years, the increase in technology level and initial capital of poor households can further improve the welfare of poor households and rural areas in GTP path.The conclusions have some certain policy implications for the increase in theoretical confidence of precision porverty alleviation and further perfection of industry precision porerty alleviation policy system in China.