进出口对经济增长贡献度的测算理论分析

利用GDP支出法测算进出口对经济增长贡献的方法存在局限性。本文从供给和需求角度出发,分析了进口、出口对经济增长产生影响的机理,进而提出了测算进口、出口对经济增长贡献度的基本方法。本文认为,进口、出口影响经济增长的作用机制不同,因而不能在同一计算公式中分解出既包含进口又包含出口对经济增长贡献的部分;测算进口、出口对经济增长的贡献,需要分别采用体现不同作用机理的计算公式。

A Theoretical Analysis on Measuring the Import and Export Contribution to the Economic Growth

The method of measuring the import and export contribution to the economic growth by using the national income accounts identity has some limitations. Based on the supply analysis and the demand analysis,this paper discusses the mechanism of the import and the export affecting the economic growth,and analyzes the calculation formula of measuring the import and the export contribution to the economic growth. A conclusion is that the import and export affect economic growth by different way,therefore there is not such a calculation formula that can include two decomposed parts:one is the part of measuring the import contribution to economic growth; the other is the part of measuring the export contribution to economic growth. The import and the export contribution to the economic growth should be calculated only by using different calculation formula representing the different mechanism.