北京城市发展阶段实证研究

论文以北京市为例,把传统的用来描述都市圈成长·衰退的都市发展阶段理论运用于城市内部,使对城市人口空间结构的动态考察成为可能.并在进一步总结城市中心区及郊区人口变化规律的基础上,参照沃尔泰拉微分方程理论,尝试构建城市中心区与郊区之间的人口空间演变模型,对进一步阐述城市中心区与郊区间的互动关系,以及人口规模发展拐点预测具有重要意义.并依据模型验证和预测了北京城市所处的发展阶段,为与之相对应的政策制定与实施提供了理论依据和数据支撑.

An Empirical Study of City Development Stages in Beijing

Using Beijing as a case, this paper applies inside a city an urban development stages hypothesis, which is traditionally used for describing the growth and recession of metropolitan areas, and makes dynamic inspection on city population structures become possible. Further, on the basis of summarizing the changing pattern of population in city center and suburb areas, this paper uses Volterra differential equation to build a population evolution model for elucidating the interaction between city center and suburb areas revealed by the changing pattern. The model has a significant importance in predicting inflexions of population evolution curve. Following this model, the paper inspects and predicts the development stages of Beijing city, and provides a theoretical and statistics support for the corresponding policy making of the government.