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The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence
Authors:Fallon, Peter R.   Lucas, Robert E. B.
Affiliation:Lead Economist in the Economic Policy Group, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, World Bank. e-mail p.r.fallon{at}verizon.net
Professor of Economics, Boston University. rlucas{at}bu.edu
Abstract:The 1990s have witnessed several financial crises, of whichthe East Asia and Mexico tequila crises are perhaps the mostwell known. What impact have these crises had on labor markets,household incomes, and poverty? Total employment fell by muchless than production declines and even increased in some cases.However, these aggregates mask considerable churning in employmentacross sectors, employment status, and location. Economies thatexperienced the sharpest currency depreciations suffered thedeepest cuts in real wages, though deeper cuts in real wagesrelative to GDP were associated with smaller rises in unemployment.To some extent, families smoothed their incomes through increasedlabor force participation and private transfers, though thelimited evidence available suggests that wealthier familieswere better able to smooth consumption. The initial impact ofthe crises was on the urban corporate sector, but rural householdswere affected as well and in some instances suffered deeperlosses than did urban families. School enrollment declined,especially among poorer families, as did use of health facilities,but he impact on children's nutrition levels appears to vary.Crises have typically proved short-lived, but whether householdsplunged into poverty during a crisis are able to recover asthe economy does remains an open question.
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