Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University, Address: 601 Huangpu Avenue West, Guangzhou 510632, China;2. Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, USA;3. Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, USA. and NBER China Working Group;1. ICREA Research Professor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona IPEG, Barcelona GSE, Spain; New Economic School, Russia;2. Professor of Economics and Political Science, and Gorter Family Professor of Islamic Studies, Duke University, USA;3. Research Scholar, Stanford Center for International Development, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, USA;1. University of Massachusetts Amherst, 80 Campus Center Way, Amherst, MA 01003, United States;2. Colorado College, 14 E. Cache La Poudre St., Colorado Springs, CO 80903, United States;1. Department of Economics, University of Sussex, United Kingdom;2. Research Department, IMF;1. Department of Public Finance, School of Economics, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, MOE Key Laboratory of Econometrics, and Fujian Key Laboratory of Statistical Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China;2. Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts & Social Sciences, National University of Singapore, AS2 Level 6, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore;1. HSBC Business School, Peking University, Shenzhen, China;2. University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States;1. School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;2. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States |
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| Abstract: | Unemployment rates in countries across the world are strongly correlated with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, whose official government statistics show abnormally low, and suspiciously stable, unemployment rates relative to its GDP. This paper reports estimates of China’s unemployment rate for its local urban Hukou population using a more reliable, nationally representative dataset for that population than in prior work, and which spans a longer period of history than in the past literature. The unemployment rates we calculate differ dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more consistent with what is known about key historical developments in China’s labor market. The rate averaged 3.7% in 1988–1995, when the labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995 to 2002, reaching an average of 9.5% in the subperiod from 2002 to 2009. The rates were even higher when demographic composition is held fixed. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995–2002 when the unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also find that the impacts of these changes fell most heavily on the unskilled (women, those with less education, and younger individuals). Finally, estimates of unemployment and labor force participation rates are also provided for all urban residents, including migrants without local urban Hukou, and show the same patterns of change over time. |
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