降低养老保险费率会导致养老金收不抵支吗?——基于2001—2015年中国31个省级面板数据的分析

城镇职工养老保险费率不仅影响养老保险基金的自我平衡,也对企业成本及劳动者的参保行为具有重大影响。本文以我国31个省级面板数据为样本,运用可行广义最小二乘法研究城镇职工养老保险费率对基金收支平衡的影响。研究表明:我国城镇职工养老保险名义费率确实偏高,对基金收支平衡存在显著的负向影响,降低城镇职工养老保险名义费率不仅不会导致基金收不抵支,反而会提升基金的收支平衡能力;在确保基金收支平衡的前提下,城镇职工养老保险名义费率可下调至20%。我国城镇职工养老保险实际费率与基金收支平衡之间存在倒U型关系,养老基金平衡能力呈先强后弱趋势;东、中、西部城镇职工养老保险实际费率依次递增,其中东部和西部地区提高养老保险实际费率均能显著提高基金的收支平衡能力,但其影响机理存在较大的差别——东部地区由市场机制决定,西部地区则是由于参保人员多为体制内员工所致。职工养老保险制度参保率对基金收支平衡的影响显著为正,制度赡养率对基金收支平衡的影响显著为负。因此,应尽快实现城镇职工养老保险全国统筹,以确保城镇职工养老保险在缴费阶段和待遇享受阶段的公平。

Will Reducing the Rate of Endowment Insurance Lead to the Failure of Pension Income to Offset Expenditure?An Analysis of 31 Provincial Panel Data in China from 2001 to 2015

The endowment insurance rate of urban employees not only affects the self balance of endowment insurance fund,but also has a significant impact on the cost of enterprises and the insured behavior of workers.In this paper,31 provincial panel data of China are used as samples to study the effect of endowment insurance rate on the balance of fund income and expenditure.The research shows that:the nominal premium rate of endowment insurance for urban employees is indeed high,which has a significant negative impact on the balance of fund income and expenditure,and reducing the nominal premium rate of endowment insurance for urban employees will not lead to the failure of fund income and expenditure,but will improve the ability of fund income and expenditure balance;on the premise of ensuring the balance of fund income and expenditure,the nominal rate of endowment insurance for urban employees can be reduced to 20%.There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the actual rate of endowment insurance for urban employees and the balance of fund income and expenditure in China,and the balance ability of pension fund is strong first and then weak;the real rates of endowment insurance for urban employees in the East,middle and West are increasing in turn,and the increase of the real rates of endowment insurance in the East and West can significantly improve the fund′s ability of balance of payments,but the impact mechanism is quite different-the eastern region is determined by the market mechanism,and the western region is due to the fact that most of the insured are employees within the system.The effect of employee pension insurance system participation rate on the balance of fund income and expenditure is significantly positive,while the effect of system support rate on the balance of fund income and expenditure is significantly negative.Therefore,it is necessary to realize the national overall plan of endowment insurance for urban workers as soon as possible,so as to ensure the fairness of endowment insurance for urban workers in the payment stage and the treatment enjoyment stage.