目前中国宏观经济的特征、危险及政策选择

本文认为,1978年以来中国宏观经济经历了四次较为严重的过热,前三次过热的共同特征是高增长、高投资与高物价并存。目前过热的特征是高增长、高投资与低物价并存。这一特征表明,中国经济的潜在危险不是通货膨胀,而是通货紧缩。对付这一特征的经济过热,最佳的政策选择是抑制投资和刺激消费。

The Characteristics, Risks and Policy Selection of China''''s Macro-Economy at Present

The author maintains that,China's Macro-economy has experienced overheat problems for four times.The common characteristic of the first three are high increase coexisting with high investment and high price.At present,the characteristic of overheated problems is high increase coexisting with high investment and low price.This characteristic shows that the potential risk of China's economy is not inflation,but deflation.To handle this,the best policy selection is to discourage investment and stimulate consumption.