亚洲货币危机视角下的资本账户开放

本文采用1985-1999年泰国、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚和菲律宾的季度数据,运用面板数据的方法,从货币危机的视角进行了实证研究,认为发展中国家的资本账户开放有引发货币危机的可能,但是这种可能性与一国的经济基础条件关系密切,为了避免和缓解发生货币危机的风险,发展中国家应在实现内外均衡和深化金融改革的前提下开放资本账户。

Capital Account Liberalization from the Angle of Asian Currency Crisis

This paper uses the method of panel data to analyze the seasonal data during the period of 1985-1999 in Thailand,India,Indonesia,Korea,Malaysia and Philippine,and then draw the conclusion that capital account liberalization could result in the currency crisis in the developing countries,but the probability is relate to the economic fundamentals very closely in each country. In order to avoid and smooth this risk,the internal and external equilibrium and financial reform should be realized prior to the capital account liberalization in the developing countries.