全球价值链分工下中国出口技术结构的演进机理与路径

本文从理论和实证的双重层面检验了全球价值链分工模式下中国出口技术结构的演进机理及路径,得出如下结论及启示:中国工业行业1995~2010年间的出口技术结构呈现出不断优化的趋势,其优化动力主要来源于物质资本、人力资本及FDI资本要素的积累与进步。但随着这些要素禀赋条件的变化,中国出口技术结构的演进机制和路径也发生了动态变化:2001年前,物质资本是影响中国出口技术结构的首要要素,但2001年以后,物质资本对出口技术结构的提升效应明显减弱,人力资本对出口技术复杂度的提升效应更加显著,且呈现出边际贡献动态上升的趋势。因此,加大对人力资本要素培育和创新将会成为中国出口结构优化和经济持续增长的新的驱动力。

Upgrade Mechanism and Path of China＇s Export Technology Structure in the GVC

This paper examined the upgrade mechanism and path of China＇s export technology structure in the GVC in the theoretical and empirical methods. Our conclusion is that China＇s export technology structure was becoming optimized from 1995 to 2010, and the optimizing force mainly resoureed from the elements of capital and human, as well as the accumulation and upgrade of FDI. With the change of the factor endowment structure, Chinese export technical structure changed dynamically from the labor-driven before 2001 to the human-driven after 2001 and the contribution of capital element is decreasing marginally. Therefore,the cultivation and creation of human element is becoming a new diving force for the China＇s export technology structure upgrade and sustainable economic growth.