On the sources of business cycles in the G-7 |
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Authors: | Fabio Canova Gianni de Nicoló |
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Institution: | a Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Trias Fargas 25-27, Barcelona 08005, Spain b International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431, USA |
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Abstract: | This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates in the G-7. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the theoretical cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source of output and inflation fluctuations in several of the G-7 countries. The proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources does not depend on the horizon. Apart from the US and Canada, structural shocks are nearly uncorrelated across countries. |
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Keywords: | Structural shocks Business cycles Dynamic correlations Impulse responses |
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