资本形成、投资效率与经济增长之间的动态相关性--来自中国1978～2004年数据的实证研究

文章根据1978~2004年样本利用向量自回归模型研究了改革开放以来中国资本形成、投资效率与经济增长之间的动态相关性,在此基础上使用脉冲响应函数、方差分解模型以及动态相关系数等方法对公共资本、私人资本与产出增长之间的作用机理进行了系统分析。研究结论表明:实际产出增长率、公共资本增长率和私人资本增长率之间体现出较强的当期相关性,具有影响关系上的近似对称性;改革开放以来,三者具有类似的波动模式,它们之间存在稳定的影响关系和影响方向;为了增强公共投资率的产出效应,应该适度改善目前的投资结构,积极诱导和鼓励私人部门在具有产出生长点的项目上进行投资,宏观调控政策在刺激国内有效需求的同时,应加强供给管理并提高供给质量。

The Studies on the Dynamic Correlations between Chinese Capital Formation, Investment Efficiency and Economics Growth since 1978

The paper studies the dynamic correlations between Chinese capital formation,investment efficiency and economics growth since 1978 using VAR model.We go on studying the function mechanism between them using IRF and variance decomposition,and the results show that there exist strong instant correlations and almost symmetry influential relations firstly,the similar volatility modes among them and the steady influential direction secondly. On the basis of findings,the policies recommended for the government should be: inducing and encouraging the private sectors to invest on the production projects,strengthening supply management and improving supply quality at the same time.