中国居民消费决定中的财政分权因素

本文首次建立引入财政分权因素的跨期消费资产定价模型,证明中国财政分权是居民消费决定中的关键因素:一方面,分权程度提高会带来居民收入增长,进而促进消费的增加;另一方面,分权程度提高会导致居民收入不确定性的增强,进而引起消费的下降。基于中国29个省区1990-2009年面板数据的实证研究验证了理论模型的判断。研究发现:预期收入水平和收入不确定性同时受财政分权因素影响,当它们共同进入模型时,只有预期收入水平系数显著为正,收入不确定性变量系数显著水平不稳定且符号不符合预期。无论引入控制变量,还是调整变量度量指标,研究结论都是稳健的。缺失财政分权因素的消费资产定价模型对于中国情况缺乏解释力,融入财政分权因素的模型则较好地拟合中国实际。

The Factor of Fiscal Decentralization in Chinese Consumption Model:Theory and Evidences

This paper sets up a newly inter-temporal consumption asset pricing model with fiscal decentralization factor,and proves that the fiscal decentralization is the key factor in China’s household consumption.On one hand,the increase of fiscal decentralization brings the increase of household income and the increase of consumption;on the other hand,the increase of fiscal decentralization also increases the household income uncertainty.Our empirical study based on panel data of China’s 29 provinces during 1990-2009 proves our theory.We also find that,the fiscal decentralization influences both expected income and income uncertainty.When they enter the empirical model together,only the coefficient of expected income is significantly positive because of the co-linearity.Either adjusting the methods of variables calculating,or introducing control variables,the conclusions are robust.The CCAPM without fiscal decentralization factor is lack of explanation power in China,while the CCAPM with fiscal decentralization factor can explain Chinese situation well.