经济增长、结构变迁与中国能源消费——基于半参数广义可加模型的经验研究

为改进以往大多数文献采用的参数估计方法的不足,文章通过构建半参数广义可加模型,区分全国整体、产业部门、能源品种、不同区域等多个层次,实证研究了经济增长、结构变迁与中国能源消费的关系.文章研究证实,经济增长对中国人均能耗增长具有显著正向影响,而调整经济结构、改变能源供给结构、加快技术进步等都有助于降低中国人均能耗水平.但是,文章发现中国存在“隐性的能耗反弹”,因此,对中国而言,结构调整结合技术进步的方式,尚不能取得持续性的预期效果,这提示中国政策制定者应将一部分关注点转移到开征能源税、实行差别化的价格管制等方向.而本文区分能源品种后的研究结果则暗示两次金融危机可能与火电消费量呈负向关系,一定程度上可以解释金融危机后中国发电量下降而经济仍然增长的现象.此外,文章非参数部分的拟合结果显示二产比重对能源消费的影响存在拐点,所以,从能耗角度解释,经济结构调整需要有一定限度.

Economic Growth,Structure Changes and China Energy Consumption——An Empirical Research based on Semi-parametric Generalized Additive Model

To solve the problems induced by parameter estimation method used in most previous literature,this paper contructed several Semi-parametric Generalized Additive Models to study the relationships among economic growth,structure changes and China’s energy consumption from different perspectives.This paper confirmed that economic growth have a significant positive impact on per capita energy consumption growth in China,while the adjustments of economic structure,the changes of energy supply structure and the technological innovation can also help to reduce the level of per capita energy consumption of China.However,the paper find that China has a "hidden energy rebound effect".Therefore,for China,the way of integrating technological progress and structure changes,yet can not obtain the sustained results.This paper suggests that China’s policy makers should transferred part of their focus to the energy tax and discriminatory price controls.Furthermore,the results got by distinguishing different kinds of energy imply that the there may be a negative relationship between economic crisis and thermal power consumption.To a certain extent,this can explain the phenomenon that the power generation in China still increased while the economic growth declined after the financial crisis.Moreover,the non-parametric fitting results show that the proportion of secondary industry has an inflexion impact on the energy consumption.Therefore,this implies that the need for economic restructuring is limited from energy conservation perspective.