铁路货运量的组合预测方法研究

铁路货运量预测作为铁路运输生产的基础工作之一,是铁路企业制订正确的营销战略的前提.在现有的铁路货运量预测模型中,采用的方法不同,预测的结果也不尽相同,而组合预测方法能够结合各种预测方法的有用信息,对目标进行科学的预测.本文探讨了在非负权重条件下,线性组合预测和非线性组合预测的模型,并以历年的铁路货运量为实例进了论证,实践结果令人满意.

The Study of Combine-Forecast Method for Railway Freight Volumes

The forecast for railway freight volumes is one of the fundamental tasks in the railway's daily work, and is the precondition before railway enterprise makes the best transportation market strategy. Presently, if the forecast method is different, the result will be also different. Combine-forecast method may do the most scientific forecast result for the reason that combine-forecast method use right information from several methods. In this article, we studies linear combine-forecast and nonlinear combine-forecast in plus coefficients, and receives a satisfying forecast result by the case of the statistics of railway freight volumes in the last 23 years.