不同层次货币供给与消费波动的关联效应比较——来自我国频域的经济证据

利用我国改革开放30年以来的月度数据,从频域的视角量化及比较分析了三个不同层次货币供给和实质消费波动间的关联效应。谱分析结果表明:我国各层次货币供给与消费波动均存在长短不一的周期波动;随着货币层次的变化,消费与货币供给波动间的相关性沿频率梯度做出规律的响应;佐证了M0与消费相关关系最为密切,其次为M1和M2这一经典命题在我国的成立;不同层次货币供给与消费波动间的时差存在差异,且亦与波动频率密切相关。

The Relationship between Money Supply and Consumption Volatility:Evidence from Frequency Domain Perspective

Using the monthly data from the recent 30 years in China,the correlation effects from different money supply on consumption volatility has been analyzed from the perspective of frequency domain.The spectral analysis results show that there are different cycle fluctuations existing in money supply and consumption volatility,and that M0 has the most closely associated with the consumption,and the classical promises of M1 and M2 are proved in China.Moreover,time lag exists between different strata of money supply and consumption volatility.