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Estimating the autocorrelated error model with trended data
Authors:Rolla Edward Park  Bridger M. Mitchell
Affiliation:The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA 90406, USA
Abstract:
A Monte Carlo study of the small sample properties of various estimators of the linear regression model with first-order autocorrelated errors. When independent variables are trended, estimators using Ttransformed observations (Prais-Winsten) are much more efficient than those using T–1 (Cochrane–Orcutt). The best of the feasible estimators isiterated Prais-Winsten using a sum-of-squared-error minimizing estimate of the autocorrelation coefficient ?. None of the feasible estimators performs well in hypothesis testing; all seriously underestimate standard errors, making estimated coefficients appear to be much more significant than they actually are.
Keywords:
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