主权货币国际化内在矛盾及其策略选择——兼论国际货币体系多元发展路线的历史逻辑

美元作为主权货币国际化,在适应并促进世界经济增长的同时,其内在矛盾成为世界经济失衡、汇率大幅波动以及流动性泛滥的重要因素。解决美国主权货币国际化助推的贸易赤字、财政赤字和巨额债务问题,需要美国政府财政政策、货币政策和产业政策的重大调整,还需要国际货币体系的重大改革,从美元主导的单一货币模式转变为多元模式。美元、欧元以及正在走向国际化的人民币共同构成代表和主导北美、欧洲、亚洲等三大经济圈、覆盖全球经济体的国际货币体系。研究主权货币国际化的内在矛盾以及国际货币体系多元发展路线的历史逻辑,对有效应对复杂多变的国际经济环境,加快人民币国际化进程具有理论和决策参考价值。

The Intrinsic Contradiction and Policy Choice of Sovereign Currency Internationalization:On the Multiple Development Route of International Monetary System with a Historical Logic

As a sovereign currency,US dollar′s internationalization,while adapting to and promoting the global economic growth,has intrinsic contradiction that turns into the monetary factors causing global unbalance,large volatility of exchange rate,and exacerbation of inflation expectation.To solve the problems of trade deficit,financial deficit and high debt due to sovereign currency internationalization,significant adjustment and reform should be performed on the financial,monetary and industrial policies of US government,and on international monetary system,that is,turing unitary monetary mode dominated by US dollar into multiple mode.The US dollar,Euro and RMB,which is moving towards internationalization,will constitute a new international monetary system covering the global economy,representing and dominating the three big economic circles,that is,North America,Europe and Asia,respectively.Studying the intrinsic contradiction of sovereign currency internationalization and the multiple development route of international monetary system with a historical logic,has a theoretical and decisive value for effectively dealing with complicated international economic change and accelerating the process of RMB's internationalization.