中国财政供养人口规模膨胀的影响因素与结构偏向

文章运用中国财政供养总人口与行政、事业部分的分列供养人口的省级面板数据,通过动态面板模型和系统GMM估计方法,考察了中国财政供养人口规模的影响因素。研究表明,经济发展水平、人均本级财政收入、公共服务需求对整体财政供养人口规模有正的影响,而人口规模、人均转移支付和对外开放程度的增加对整体财政供养人口规模会有抑制作用。同时,地方政府内在的行为动机可能会造成行政部分财政供养人口规模的过度膨胀和事业部分财政供养人口规模的相对下降。

Determinants of Expansion of Fiscal Dependents and Structure Deviation

This paper investigates the determinants of the total size of fiscal dependents including government agencies and service units at the provincial level in China by establishing a dynamic panel data model using SYS-GMM estimation.Our study shows that the level of economic development,per capita fiscal income,and public service demand positively associate with total size of fiscal dependents,while the increases in size of the population,per capita fiscal transfer and the level of openness curtail total number of fiscal dependants.Local governments’ inner motivation may cause government agencies to be overstaffed,but also relatively reduce the size of service units.