Agricultural Land Conversion and Inheritence Tax in Japan

In this paper we investigate theoretically the extent to which the development timing of agricultural land conversion would be hastened by the introduction of inheritence tax. We extend the optimal timing of wealth maximizing value use models by Scouras (1978), Anderson (1993) and Kanemoto (1996) to examine cases where tax rates vary according to land use with (i) almost no income and (ii) high income use, such as rental housing. We first model landowner's behavior within the life cycle dynamic optimization framework and then simulate the impact of inheritence tax on the optimal timing of development. Some notable predictions about optimal timing of development emerge from our numerical analysis: no inheritence tax effect is observed for landowners whose inheritence probability is less than 1% (that is, landowners in the age group 40 or below) and whose inheritence tax rate is less than 10%. However, the optimal timing of development drops to below one year for landowners whose inheritence probability is more than 18% and whose tax rate is 30%.