2000年以来外汇占款与物价因果关系的实证研究

文章利用现有的统计数据,围绕2000年以来中国外汇占款与物价之间的关系展开了较为详实的定量研究.文章具体考查了外汇占款、货币供应量以及物价等经济时间序列的平稳性,同时运用协整理论,对外汇占款与物价之间的关系进行检验,得出以下结论:中国的物价与外汇占款之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,长期内外汇占款的增加可能引发通货膨胀.结合我国开放经济下的货币政策,文章从货币政策的运行机理研究了外汇占款对中国货币政策和物价的影响途径,提出了对外汇占款进行管理的一些建议.

Quantitative Study on the Relationship between the Funds Outstanding for Foreign Exchange and the Prices Thoroughly since 2000

The article emphasizes the study of the funds outstanding for foreign exchange with the economic theory.Based on the existing statistic data,The paper carries out a quantitative study about the relationship between the funds outstanding for foreign exchange and the prices thoroughly since 2000.The paper studies the stability of the economic series including the funds outstanding for foreign exchange,monetary supply etc.We draw the conclusion that the funds outstanding for foreign exchange can promote the price in a long-term with the application of co-integration on the relationship between the funds outstanding for foreign exchange and the prices.this paper studied how the funds outstanding for foreign exchange affects China's monetary policy and the prices and appoints some advices in order to control the rising of funds outstanding for foreign exchange.