FDI、对外贸易对中部经济增长影响的实证分析

本文利用中部地区1993年至2007年年度样本数据，应用协整理论及格兰杰因果关系检验等现代计量经济学方法，定量分析了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明，中部地区经济增长在短期内与对外贸易互为Granger原因，而外商直接投资在短期内与中部经济增长不构成Granger因果关系；经济增长对对外贸易的波动冲击表现出较大的正向效应，而FDI由于地区因素的影响，作用较小，同时方差分解也表明对外贸易在中部经济增长预测误差的方差贡献度中所占比重最大。

The positive analysis of the effect on FDI, foreign trade to the central economic growth

This paper makes use of the annual data of the economic data in the central China from 1993 to 2007 and the modern econometric methods including the co-integration theory and Granger Causality Test analyzing the dynamic relationship among FDI, foreign trade and economic growth. The result indicates that in the short run, both the economic growth and foreign trade are granger causality to each other, while the foreign direct investment and economic growth don't constitute Granger causality relationship; the fluctuations on foreign trade has a strong positive effect on the economic growth, while FDI plays a small role because of regional factors. Meanwhile, the variance decomposition also declares that in the economic growth prediction error, the foreign trade occupies the highest proportion.