土地市场发育与农地非农化——基于省际面板数据的估计与测算

研究目的：验证土地市场发育对农地非农化的作用方向，估算其对农地非农化的作用。研究方法：理论分析与面板数据模型相结合。研究结果：（1）全国土地市场化水平不断提高，90%以上省份处于转型期土地市场经济阶段；（2）土地市场发育与农地非农化之间呈负相关关系；（3）1999 — 2005年，全国因土地市场发育而得到抑制的农地转为建设用地数量为25624.79 hm2，占农地转为建设用地总量的1.76%，土地资源市场化配置对于农地非农化的抑制作用还不高。研究结论：缓解农地保护压力的制度供给和政策调整可从两方面开展：（1）提高拍卖出让方式比例，出让方式由低市场化方式向高市场化方式转变，提高土地市场化水平；（2）加强土地市场法规建设、规范土地市场，促进土地市场健康发展。

Land Market Development and the Farmland Conversion for Non-agricultural Use: Assessment and Calculation Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data

The purpose of this paper is to verify the direction of impact of land market development on farmland conversion for non-agricultural use, and estimate its effects on farmland conversion for non-agricultural use. Methods of theoretical analysis and panel data model were jointly employed. The results indicate that: (1)the general marketization level of China land market is increasing constantly, and more than ninety percent provinces are in the so-defined transformation stage; (2)the relationship between land market development and farmland conversion for non-agricultural use is negatively correlated; (3)there was 25624.79 hm2 of farmland were saved due to the development of land market from 1999 to 2005 which supposed to he converted into construction land, hut it is only accounting for 1.76% of the total area of the converted farmland. Thus, it illustrates the role of market allocation on controlling farmland conversion is not significant. It is concluded that the institutional supply and policy adjustment for relieving the pressure of farmland protection can follow two aspects: (1) increase the proportion of auction pattern in urban land conveyance, change the conveyance pattern of land transfer from low liberalized market to high ones, and eventually improve the liberalized level of land market; (2)enhance the setting up of related regulations to formalize the land market, and accelerate the healthy development of the land market.