城市旅游业CO_2排放态势及旅游业低碳化发展模式

城市是旅游活动CO2排放的主要集中地。基于旅游者消费视角,文章以深圳市为例,对其2001~2011年旅游业碳足迹态势进行分析。结合脱钩理论和Kaya恒等式,以2011年为基期,模拟深圳市未来旅游业CO2排放量。研究表明:(1)深圳市近11年旅游业能源消费及CO2排放量呈逐步上升趋势;(2)旅游业能源消耗及CO2排放的变化规律与旅游业GDP、游客接待总量有着密切关系;(3)A模式惯性情景下2020年CO2排放将达到1578万t,为基期的1.92倍,与国家的承诺及旅游局的目标背道而驰;(4)B模式绝对脱钩情景下CO2排放增长为零,这是非常理想的模式,但"反增长计划"和"能源生产效率改进"两条道路都走不通;(5)C模式相对脱钩情景下CO2排放是基期的1.38倍,旅游业在维持适宜增长的同时能源消耗和CO2排放状况得到明显改善,C模式是既考虑发展权益又承担大国责任的适宜发展模式。文章最后指出,C模式的实现需要旅游产业发展战略由供给导向向需要导向转型,并采取能源替代、效率改进、技术研发、规制治理和社会创新等综合路径。

Urban Tourism Situation Analysis on C02 Emissions and Future Low Carbon Scenarios Based on Decoupling Theory and Kaya Identities

Cities are the primary focus when analyzing tourism carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions. From the perspective of tourism energy consumption, the study calculates China＇ s tourism related CO2 emissions during 2001-2011, taking the city of Shenzhen as an example. The study found that： （1） the energy consumption and CO2 emissions arising from tourism in Shenzhen have gradually increased over the past 11 years, and after three periods of rapid growth, the growth rate has now slowed; （2） changes in tourism energy consumption and CO2 emission patterns have a close relationship with tourism GDP and visitor numbers. With development the tourism industry faces pressures relating to energy consumption, emissions and energy-saving emission reductions; （3） the tourism industry energy consumption and CO2 emissions total amounts - from large to small - are transportation, catering, accommodation, travel, entertainment and shopping, with the transportation component accounting for nearly 90% of the total. Energy-saving and emission reductions in the tourism industry are closely related to national and urban road construction; and, （4） for long distance journeys, aviation is optimal choice in terms of time, physical and economy cost; for short to medium distance journeys highways and railways are viable alternatives that can reduce the energy consumption and CO： emissions of tourist traffic. Therefore, although energy saving and CO2 emission reduction in the tourism industry are controlled by the growth of tourism GDP and visitor numbers, they can be enhanced by improving management levels, energy facilities, and guidance to promote low carbon consumption behavior. Based on decoupling theory and Kaya identities, the paper establishes three scenarios （A, B, and C） with 2011 taken as the base period. Tourism industry CO2 emission predications for 2015, 2018 and 2020 are undertaken for Shenzhen. The scenario analysis shows that： （5） CO2 emissions will reach 15.78 million tons in 2020 under scenario A. This amounts to 1.92 times that of the base level, and thus runs counter to the national commitment on CO2 emission reductions and to the Tourism Bureau＇ s objectives; （6） under the absolute decoupling scenario B, CO： emission growth is zero, but energy productivity must increase from the current average annual growth rate of 2.92% to an average annual growth rate of 8.81%. This seems an ideal scenario, but ＂anti-growth＂ and ＂energy production efficiency improvement＂ are difficult to implement; and, （7） under the relative decoupling scenario C, CO2 emissions will reach 11.32 million tons in 2020. This is 1.38 times that of the base level, and thus seems the most suitable scenario for the tourist industry to maintain appropriate growth while reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The tourism industry can realize the national target that commits to a 40% - 50% reduction in energy intensity per unit of GDP by 2020 over 2005 figures. Therefore, scenario C is considered the dptimal method for China to develop its economy while recognizing its responsibility as a major power for protecting the environment. Finally, the paper points out that the effective realization of scenario C requires the transformation of the tourism industry development strategy from supply-oriented to demand-oriented. Moreover, it needs to adopt a comprehensive development path including aspects such as alternative energy, efficiency improvement, technology research and development, regulatory governance and social innovation.